The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few
- Downloads：3602
- Type：Epub+TxT+PDF+Mobi
- Create Date：2021-09-19 09:53:29
- Update Date：2025-09-06
- Status：finish
- Author：James Surowiecki
- ISBN：0349116059
- Environment：PC/Android/iPhone/iPad/Kindle
- Download
Summary
In this fascinating book， New Yorker business columnist James Surowiecki explores a deceptively simple idea: Large groups of people are smarter than an elite few， no matter how brilliant -- better at solving problems， fostering innovation， coming to wise decisions， even predicting the future。
With boundless erudition and in delightfully clear prose， Surowiecki ranges across fields as diverse as popular culture， psychology， ant biology， behavioral economics， artificial intelligence， military history， and politics to show how this simple idea offers important lessons for how we live our lives， select our leaders， run our companies， and think about our world。
With boundless erudition and in delightfully clear prose， Surowiecki ranges across fields as diverse as popular culture， psychology， ant biology， behavioral economics， artificial intelligence， military history， and politics to show how this simple idea offers important lessons for how we live our lives， select our leaders， run our companies， and think about our world。
Reviews
Fifi
，
'The confrontation with a dissenting view， logically enough， forces the majority to interrogate its own positions more seriously。' 'The confrontation with a dissenting view， logically enough， forces the majority to interrogate its own positions more seriously。' 。。。more
Joe Wabe
，
There are a few interesting facts， but too many studies of the same type， at some point the book becomes redundant。 It is also mostly based on the social behavior of American society， so I wonder how all of these could be compared to other cultures。 An "ok" read if you are interested in American society。 There are a few interesting facts， but too many studies of the same type， at some point the book becomes redundant。 It is also mostly based on the social behavior of American society， so I wonder how all of these could be compared to other cultures。 An "ok" read if you are interested in American society。 。。。more
Rob Sedgwick
，
It's rare to find a non-fiction book that has a theme so powerful it is stamped on every page。 But this is one such book。 A simple and powerful idea， amazingly simple， powerful and brilliantly explained。 It's rare to find a non-fiction book that has a theme so powerful it is stamped on every page。 But this is one such book。 A simple and powerful idea， amazingly simple， powerful and brilliantly explained。 。。。more
Carter
，
I am not sure， what to make of this book， since it seems to be about something else entirely。。。 A series of vignettes， or short essays， and nothing to do about crowds at all。 Much of it has to do with current issues， but there is not much of interest here。
Ramya Viswanathan
，
The wisdom of crowds by James surowiecki;An interesting look at what groups bring to the table， how crowds work， how mobs work， how small teams work， where personal interest figures and much more
Strick
，
Not bad。
Keno Castro
，
Very hard book， because it's thicc。 Found many wisdom even though it sometimes seems to blabber。 Will reread Very hard book， because it's thicc。 Found many wisdom even though it sometimes seems to blabber。 Will reread 。。。more
Liliana
，
RTC
Costa Gavrielides
，
I've started reading this book when I was examining in detail the tangible benefits of diversity。 Surowiecki touches on that as part of his thesis that a disorganised group can on average make better collective decisions than any specialised individual， based on certain criteria - diversity， independence of opinions， decentralisation， aggregation of opinions and trust of the crowd。 It a very good concept and a lot of examples to prove this are mentioned。Overall this was an interesting book and I I've started reading this book when I was examining in detail the tangible benefits of diversity。 Surowiecki touches on that as part of his thesis that a disorganised group can on average make better collective decisions than any specialised individual， based on certain criteria - diversity， independence of opinions， decentralisation， aggregation of opinions and trust of the crowd。 It a very good concept and a lot of examples to prove this are mentioned。Overall this was an interesting book and I want to read again now that I have a better understanding of what Surowiecki wants us to see。 I've already recommended this book to friends and included it in my presentations。 。。。more
Madalina Banuta
，
The average of a group’s estimate/choice is greater than most of the individual estimates/choices made by the group’s members taken one by one。 Surely you won’t need a few hundreds pages to prove this point， but that’s what you will get with this book。
Lylyna Heng
，
The book laid out the simple way of how the information and knowledge flow。 It is not the individual but rather the crowds。 That is the most important part in the book。 But at the end of the day， it is the individual who makes the move is matter the most。 It gives ideas and example how the crowd idea can affect the outcome。
Greg
，
In The Wisdom of Crowds， James Surowiecki attempts to demonstrate many of the ways that the uninformed masses make better and more accurate decisions than individuals。The biggest failing here is that beyond his singular "guess the weight of an ox" success story， most of his examples are cherry picked after the fact， weakly related to the subject， or completely contradict his main hypothesis。 For example， he writes an entire chapter on traffic jams。 He even concludes that， "If an intelligent crow In The Wisdom of Crowds， James Surowiecki attempts to demonstrate many of the ways that the uninformed masses make better and more accurate decisions than individuals。The biggest failing here is that beyond his singular "guess the weight of an ox" success story， most of his examples are cherry picked after the fact， weakly related to the subject， or completely contradict his main hypothesis。 For example， he writes an entire chapter on traffic jams。 He even concludes that， "If an intelligent crowd cannot save itself from traffic jams， perhaps intelligent highways can。" Other examples he gives of crowds being absolutely stupid are scientific citations， stock market bubbles， and crowds pushing suicidal folks to jump off bridges。This book is a mess of sweeping conclusions based on cherry-picked and misrepresented information。 If anything， Surowiecki ends up proving exactly the opposite of the title of his book。 If you want a far better "______ of Crowds" book， check out The Madness of Crowds。I'll leave you with this quote from Men in Black that perfectly summarizes this book:A person is smart。 People are dumb， panicky dangerous animals and you know it。 。。。more
Semih
，
Kitap karmaşık sistemlerden ekonomiye， irrasyonel karar verme mekanizmamızdan süper tahmin yapabilen insanlara， kırılgan toplum yapısına ve daha birçok sağduyuya ters düşen alanda incelikli yaklaşımlar sunuyor。Bazı hoşuma giden noktalara dair alıntılar yapacağım:"internet furyası evrim tarihinde en çok yeni türün doğduğu ve yok olu kambriyum patlamasına benzer" Belki şu an kripto paralar için de benzer bir alıntıyı yapmak mümkündür。"İnsanların eylemlerini eşgüdümlemenin bir yolu， otorite kullanm Kitap karmaşık sistemlerden ekonomiye， irrasyonel karar verme mekanizmamızdan süper tahmin yapabilen insanlara， kırılgan toplum yapısına ve daha birçok sağduyuya ters düşen alanda incelikli yaklaşımlar sunuyor。Bazı hoşuma giden noktalara dair alıntılar yapacağım:"internet furyası evrim tarihinde en çok yeni türün doğduğu ve yok olu kambriyum patlamasına benzer" Belki şu an kripto paralar için de benzer bir alıntıyı yapmak mümkündür。"İnsanların eylemlerini eşgüdümlemenin bir yolu， otorite kullanmak veya zorlamaktır。。。 Fakat liberal bir toplumda （yasaları ve resmi kuralları da içeren） otoritenin sivil yurttaşlar üzerinde ancak sınırlı bir nüfuzu vardır。。。 Dolayısıyla， birçok eşgüdüm sorunu， yukarıdan aşağı değil， tabandan çıkan çözümler gerektirir。 Hepsinin merkezinde de aynı soru vardır; insanlar gönüllü olarak - yani birisi onlara ne yapılması gerektiğini söylemeden - hareketlerini verimli ve etkili biçimde birbirine nasıl uydurabilirler？。。。Neticede grupların akıllı çözümler bulacağının garantisi yoktur。 Oysa ne ilginçtir ki bulurlar bu çözümleri"Sadece bir paragrafta dahi belki de en zarif fiziksel çözüm yöntemlerinden birisi olan basit harmonik hareket ve de karmaşık sistemlerdeki senkronizasyon problemi ve yaklaşım yöntemlerine gönderme yapılmış （muhtemelen yazar bunu ayırdında değil） böylece sosyal bilimler ile karmaşık sistemler arasında bir köprü kurulmuştur。 Kitabın açılışındaki ilk örnek ise en bilinen olaylardan birisidir。 Bir sınıfa şeker kutusu getirilir ve topluluğa kutuda kaç şeker olduğu sorulur。。。"Schelling'e göre birçok durumda insanların beklentilerinin birbirine yaklaştığı odak noktaları vardır。 （Schelling noktaları）。 Bu noktalar birkaç nedenle önemlidir。 Birincisi， insanların herkesin yararına olacak sonuçlara merkezi bir yönlendirme olmaksızın， hatta birbirleriyle konuşmadan varabileceklerini gösterirler。 Schelling'in yazdığı gibi， "İnsanlar ötekilerin de aynı şeyi yapmaya çalıştığını bilirlerse， çoğu kez niyetlerini ve beklentilerini başkalarıyla uyumlu hale getirebilirler。""Bununla ilgili Howard Rheingold Smart Mobs ve Olağanüstü Kitlesel Yanılgılar ve Kalabalıkların Çılgınlığı kitaplarını okuyacağım。Ekonomide herhangi bir değişikliğe kitlelerin borsada anlık fiyatlamayı bir anda gerçekleştirmeleri ve de borsa stratejilerinde az enformasyonun fazla enformasyona göre nasıl avantajlar sağladığını deneyler eşliğinde dinlemek de oldukça etkileyiciydi。Kitapta o kadar çok detay var ki neredeyse herbiri çok daha geniş açılımları ve de ele alınmaları bekliyor。 Sadece entelektüel bir bilgilenme değil düşüncelerime yeniden eleştirel gözle bakmamı sağlayan bir kitap。 。。。more
Saeed
，
I don't like the style of writing but the message is that crowds tend to make accurate predictions when three conditions prevail—diversity， aggregation， and incentives。 Diversity is about people having different ideas and different views of things。 Aggregation means you can bring the group’s information together。 Incentives are rewards for being right and penalties for being wrong that are often， but not necessarily， monetary。 I don't like the style of writing but the message is that crowds tend to make accurate predictions when three conditions prevail—diversity， aggregation， and incentives。 Diversity is about people having different ideas and different views of things。 Aggregation means you can bring the group’s information together。 Incentives are rewards for being right and penalties for being wrong that are often， but not necessarily， monetary。 。。。more
Valentina
，
Rating: 4/5„The idea of the wisdom of crowds is not that a group will always give you the right answer but that on average it will consistently come up with a better answer than any individual could provide。“This book offered a number of fascinating insights into the concept that we all are collectively smarter than any individual。 It goes into great detail about how this process works and why it works despite going so much against our intuition and gives numerous examples to illustrate the poin Rating: 4/5„The idea of the wisdom of crowds is not that a group will always give you the right answer but that on average it will consistently come up with a better answer than any individual could provide。“This book offered a number of fascinating insights into the concept that we all are collectively smarter than any individual。 It goes into great detail about how this process works and why it works despite going so much against our intuition and gives numerous examples to illustrate the points made。 Explored are examples from betting to the stock market， why the Columbia couldn’t safely make it back to earth and how a massive group of people managed to find a seemingly lost submarine by simply adding up all their guesses。However， the book also shows the limits of groups of people making decisions， how groups can get biased， radicalised， made inefficient and even dumber by working together in the wrong way。 I found myself learning a lot about how to better organise a small group for it to actually be smarter than just the smartest person in the group。While I do need to admit that the book dragged at times and not every example is relevant anymore （I am looking at you people meter technology） it gave me a lot of interesting insights as well as fun facts that I will be sharing at random with my friends。 However， people who are just looking for the basic argument and findings of this book might be better off looking for an article summarising it， since it would get pretty short if you’d strip it of its illustrative examples。 And I will say again， they are worth reading！But all in all， I actually learned a lot from this book and if you are someone in a position to make decisions or are interested in humanity as a whole， I would highly recommend this book。 。。。more
Tome
，
Too many pages to say: crowd can be wiser than one person， but it can fail spectacularly。Read something about ensemble models to learn really useful stuff on this topic。
Tyler Burns
，
You can check out my review here:https://youtu。be/HsiFVdWDPDo You can check out my review here:https://youtu。be/HsiFVdWDPDo 。。。more
Cora
，
I've learned a lot， but to many examples I've learned a lot， but to many examples 。。。more
Tigrlily
，
During the age of industrialization and urbanization in the early century， convention held that group and herd mentality was to be feared。 Led by the ideas of Le Bon， Neitzche and Henry David Thoreau， they lamented about the collective madness and foolishness of crowds。 French social psychologist Gustav Le Bon’s had deep criticism of crowds， he believed crowds acted foolishly and could not accomplish any acts that require intelligence。 In this book Mr。 Surowiecki attempts expanding on the classi During the age of industrialization and urbanization in the early century， convention held that group and herd mentality was to be feared。 Led by the ideas of Le Bon， Neitzche and Henry David Thoreau， they lamented about the collective madness and foolishness of crowds。 French social psychologist Gustav Le Bon’s had deep criticism of crowds， he believed crowds acted foolishly and could not accomplish any acts that require intelligence。 In this book Mr。 Surowiecki attempts expanding on the classical theory as well as contesting it。 The book is a based on a loose conceptual idea and is unequivocally an exercise of social science theory。 Surowiecki creates an operational definition of four conditions which he claims impacts the outcome and validity a groups intelligence when determining the outcome。 He theorizes diversity， independence， aggregation of data and a particular type of decentralization as conditions for， or it’s the absence thereof， as necessary for a crowd to conclude cognitive decisions and outcomes that may better or worse than experts。 A combination or lack of these attributes in a crowd， impact either preferred or undesired outcomes， as well as the group’s ability to make decisions whose results are on level or better than experts。 The cases he presents are disparate and diverse;examples are taken from business organizations， governments， the entertainment industry， social institutions and behavioral economics experiments。 Surowiecki begins with a phenomenon of a regional English fair in 1908 where townspeople guess the weight of an ox。 When the majority of the fair goers correctly guess the weight of the ox within 2 pounds， amazement is found at the accuracy of the guesses and Surowiecki begins to make the case for crowd intelligence to solve cognitive problems。 As with the case with many social science studies and experiments， the subjects and experiment has not been replicated consistently， and the background and full context of the example has been omitted， and cannot be verified。 A critical view of this single case study can also conclude that the subjects from the fair are most likely typically of their times; rural folk who in their daily lives have exposure to livestock and may be familiar with an reoccurring annual contest of guessing the weight of an ox， thus the idea of crowd intelligence is not so surprising， but rather ordinary。 The group may not have been as diverse as the author may led us to believe。 The book also attempts to show examples of how crowd intelligence is used to solve the problems of coordination and cooperation。 He points us to a range of experiments and antidotal studies by social psychologists in the 1960’s including festival seating， queues and traffic jams illustrating how social proofs and deep inherent social conventions inform a group how to coordinate and cooperate effectively。 In the same breath Surowecki subtly references ants， bees and swallows to illustrate how the animal kingdom can coordinate their movements not unsimilar to that of human beings; comparing centuries of specialized instinct and evolution in the lower species to that of higher human cognition and intelligence to make the case for for how societies coordinate。 Another argument the books makes is that seeking expertise can be a fallacy and that proper aggravation of data from a diverse and independent group is just as effective for predicting the best outcome using auctions， sports betting and stock markets to show cognition and intelligence diverse crowds。 However with enough statical data， we can test predictive accuracy overtime。 Therefore sport betting， auctions， and stock markets which have available collective， aggregate， and statical data for historical reference is not so remarkable as to allude to “crowd intelligence”。 The book is inconclusive for crowd intelligence， and a deeper critical look at the evidence presented leaves it apt for irrelevance as it does not attempt to solve any social problems， but instead temporally entertains readers on perceived phenomenon based on “one study” empirical data and non-rigorous methodology。 Additionally， further irrelevance for the author’s social science concept is due to the book being written before the contemporary explosion of social media， where the framework of crowd attribution that he discusses are skewed and have inherent complications because of the ruthless algorithmic nature of these media platforms。 。。。more
Chista
，
I think it could be much shorter， like 20-30 pages。 I really hate that in these kinds of “illuminating” books， they just keep repeating the same stuff over and over with more examples。 Then they repeat the same examples again in future chapters to make the whole thing seems coherent。 Dude， this is repetition！ I remember my Phd supervisor advised me to do the same， it was disgusting！
Ernesto Alcantara
，
This book is an easy read with provocative statements: group dynamics， need for group diversity and independence， pitfalls of cascading information， bubbles and the importance of group participation in democracy。 There are some interesting anecdotes， quotable ideas but not an in depth analysis for my liking。
Ioana Hreninciuc
，
The studies and anecdotes shared are interesting but the structure is a bit loose and the insights are more sprinkled here and there rather than being communicated through a clear structure。 As a result， you have to work a bit more on behalf of the author to consider how to actually use this information。Otherwise， it’s an interesting， lightweight reading， good if you’re looking to know more about the topic but don’t feel like tackling it through something too heavy。
Emil O。 W。 Kirkegaard
，
Quite enjoyable despite the age。
Jiliac
，
Short but impactful book。 I wasn't very focused while reading it so I guess it would deserve a re-read。 The central thesis is explained early in the book and then the author walks us through different applications in a an array of fields （e。g。 finance， politics）。 What so impressive about this thesis is how **un-intuitive** it is。 We believe expert。 Because we want to。 We want to believe in the power of the mind。 However， what Surowiecki shows is that however good experts， they are weaker than a Short but impactful book。 I wasn't very focused while reading it so I guess it would deserve a re-read。 The central thesis is explained early in the book and then the author walks us through different applications in a an array of fields （e。g。 finance， politics）。 What so impressive about this thesis is how **un-intuitive** it is。 We believe expert。 Because we want to。 We want to believe in the power of the mind。 However， what Surowiecki shows is that however good experts， they are weaker than a crowd （if we respect the condition of independence）。 。。。more
Adrien Wamboldt
，
I didn’t love this book but not because it wasn’t well written or uninteresting but I just went in expecting it to be more about the dynamics of groups， as in group therapy， group projects， etc。 It wasn’t what I expected and I felt more like I was reading a book for school。 But I certainly would not say it was a poor read， it just was a little over my head and talked about stuff like the stock market and stuff。 I did get some interesting information from it， but like I said， the psychology behin I didn’t love this book but not because it wasn’t well written or uninteresting but I just went in expecting it to be more about the dynamics of groups， as in group therapy， group projects， etc。 It wasn’t what I expected and I felt more like I was reading a book for school。 But I certainly would not say it was a poor read， it just was a little over my head and talked about stuff like the stock market and stuff。 I did get some interesting information from it， but like I said， the psychology behind more intimate groups settings was not what the book was about， which made for kind of a boring read。 But kudos to Surowiecki for his intelligence， the research he put into the book， and the presentation of it。 。。。more
Kristijan
，
Althaugh the autor put most focus in economy， the principles discussed could be applied in many other fields as well。 I missed some more variety in the examples。
Anders Gränfors
，
A easy to grasp idearA book I find very interesting。 Language is easy and it flows good。 A must read again read on Kindle
Rob Mills
，
Lots of interesting anecdotes and a vague framework for how the wisdom of crowds can be gleaned。 However， I very much fear the hindsight bias in all the caveats。 For instance， we all know of Treynor jelly bean experiment， did you know that it's all for naught if you tell the class it's a glass jar with thinner walls ahead of time？ How can one avoid such implicit spoilers in real life？Good reminders about how groups can be best structured but the pre-conditions， ie everyone will be honest， are to Lots of interesting anecdotes and a vague framework for how the wisdom of crowds can be gleaned。 However， I very much fear the hindsight bias in all the caveats。 For instance， we all know of Treynor jelly bean experiment， did you know that it's all for naught if you tell the class it's a glass jar with thinner walls ahead of time？ How can one avoid such implicit spoilers in real life？Good reminders about how groups can be best structured but the pre-conditions， ie everyone will be honest， are tough。 I like the idea of people writing down their opinions before discussions starts and thought it interestingly opposite to how Amazon starts their meetings with the memo indoctrination。So interesting enough and sort of fun to read but left me wanting。 。。。more
Daniel
，
+ Actually gives a nuanced picture of when the crowd is wise and when it is not。+ Highlights some interesting business models that are not obviously seen。+ Smooth transition from anecdotes to economic theory。- Overarching theme not clear enough。 Sometimes the chapters are not coherent with each other。
Kiran Kumar
，